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Probability theory in online gambling

For the average player, online casino gambling is nothing more than entertainment. But in reality, these games are made fair through the application of many different formulas. These formulas have always attracted the curiosity of players. Gamblers are firm believers in the theory of probability and the possibility of influencing it.

What is probability theory? What does it refer to and how is it used in online gambling? These are the questions this article answers.

What is probability theory?

Probability theory is actually a branch of mathematics that deals with statistics and the modelling of random events. In simple terms, its aim is to model how (random) events actually happen and to give a mathematical explanation for them.

To put it simply, if a player has a 50% chance of flipping a coin, he or she must also calculate the probability of flipping a coin three times in a row: 12.5%.

Key values in gambling

Nowadays, it is possible to play several gambling games on the Internet. The RTPs (Return To Player) shown give an idea of the chances of winning. Again, it should be remembered that casino games are methodically tested by eCOGRA and other regulatory bodies to ensure that they are fair and to give them RNGs. This is all done before they are made available to players.

All these measures are taken to reduce any attempt to influence the outcome of these games.

Variance in probability theory

Mathematics usually allows for exact results, but this is not the case in gambling. In probability theory there is a value called the variance.

The RTP is expressed as a percentage and is always below 100%: between 95 and 98%. This means that a player should always get back on average 95-98% of his bet. Of course, this is not necessarily true, because if it were, it would mean that players are guaranteed to always lose their bets. This is where the variance, also known as volatility, comes in.